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Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
6%
64 forecasters
13
21 comments
21
Who will win the 2024 presidential election in Romania?
Someone else
Yes
Marcel Ciolacu
No
Mircea Geoanฤ
No
4 others
3
15 comments
15
2024 International Elections Hub
Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
20%
70 forecasters
8
12 comments
12
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
10%
355 forecasters
37
25 comments
25
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
condition
Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?
27 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
1%
1%
US Iran War Before 2025?
1%
1%
3
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
condition
US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?
10 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
5%
5%
US-China war before 2035?
5%
5%
3
1 comment
1
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?
Resolved :
No
112 forecasters
12
6 comments
6
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?
Resolved :
No
125 forecasters
6
2 comments
2
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?
99%
206 forecasters
24
20 comments
20
Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
45%
34 forecasters
4
5 comments
5
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