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By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

356 forecasters

55

Ragnarök Series

Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?

275 forecasters

30

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

231 forecasters

44

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

283 forecasters

35

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

15

Are we in a simulated reality? Part I

146 forecasters

24

What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?

10

Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

-13

The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?

10