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After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

283 forecasters

35

Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?

191 forecasters

26

Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?

6

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

9

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

3

When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?

Resolved :Oct 2, 2023

10

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

10

Will transformative AI come with a bang?

13

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

13

AI Demonstrations

When will a carbon price be paid on 50% or more of the world's carbon emissions?

3