Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
208 comments
208
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
68%
Afghanistan
63%
70 others
20
59 comments
59
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
25%
Israel
20%
Pakistan
10%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
61.9%
10
35%
11
10%
4 others
4
12 comments
12
Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?
2.8%
157 forecasters
15
37 comments
37
Will there be war between North Korea and South Korea before these dates, according to WPR?
2040
12%
2030
6%
2025
0.4%
8
13 comments
13
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
27%
247 forecasters
28
15 comments
15
Ragnarök Series
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
1.02
139 forecasters
26
45 comments
45
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
46.9%
77 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
Ragnarök Series
Load More