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Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
686 forecasters
83
102 comments
102
Verity
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?
80%
166 forecasters
29
31 comments
31
Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
1.9%
42 forecasters
6
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?
1%
119 forecasters
11
34 comments
34
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project