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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

247 forecasters

28

Ragnarök Series

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

-1

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

3

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

4

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

6

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

6

Ragnarök Question Series: overview

14

Ragnarök Series

Ragnarök Series—results so far

31

Ragnarök Series

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

4

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project