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Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

247 forecasters

28

Ragnarök Series

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

191 forecasters

18

Ragnarök Series

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

9

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation on a nation's capital by 2024, if an offensive nuclear detonation occurs anywhere by 2024?

Resolved :Annulled

2

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?

8

Nuclear Risk Tournament

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

3

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

4

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

4

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

4

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project