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When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
2025-03-30
777 forecasters
59
108 comments
108
Effective Institutions Project
If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?
1.76k
67 forecasters
10
12 comments
12
Business of AI
Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?
8%
616 forecasters
17
70 comments
70
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
OpenAI
46.28%
Anthropic
29.45%
Google DeepMind
19.56%
3 others
9
12 comments
12
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAIโs Superalignment team at the end of 2024?
0.3%
451 forecasters
10
12 comments
12
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?
0.1%
45 forecasters
5
5 comments
5
Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?
18%
285 forecasters
27
71 comments
71
What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?
June 30, 2025:
94.7
45 forecasters
12
38 comments
38
AI Technical Benchmarks
Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?
90%
35 forecasters
5
9 comments
9
Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra
15%
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus
12%
OpenAI / GPT-5
7%
20
33 comments
33
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