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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

44

Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?

37

When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?

10

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

40

What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?

10

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

17

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

35

How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?

Resolved :Above upper bound

2

Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?

4

Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?

-4

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