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After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

231 forecasters

44

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

283 forecasters

35

Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?

222 forecasters

37

When the first company reaches a $10 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?

10

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

267 forecasters

40

What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?

10

Will there be a 4 year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?

17

How many additional Eliciting Latent Knowledge prizes will be awarded?

Resolved :Above upper bound

2

Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?

4

Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?

-4

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