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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1523 forecasters

201

482 comments482

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

306 forecasters

33

AI Demonstrations

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1432 forecasters

176

488 comments488

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

27

Situational Awareness

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

31

160 comments160

Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?

161 forecasters

29

Fermi Paradox Series

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

9

Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?

6

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

356 forecasters

55

Ragnarök Series

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

225 forecasters

27

AI Demonstrations