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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-01-24
176
480 comments
480
AGI Outcomes
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-10-22
201
476 comments
476
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
51%
32
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?
1%
5
20 comments
20
AGI Outcomes
Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?
90%
27
17 comments
17
AI Demonstrations
Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?
96%
32
16 comments
16
AI Demonstrations
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
AI-Fizzle
32.04%
Futurama
26.42%
AI-Dystopia
15.99%
2 others
31
160 comments
160
AGI Outcomes
Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?
26%
32
66 comments
66
AI Demonstrations
When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?
2028-12-04
43
70 comments
70
AGI Outcomes
Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?
2031
25%
2026
15%
9
3 comments
3
Business of AI
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