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Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

6

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

267 forecasters

40

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?

Resolved :1.59k

7

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period?

6

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?

Resolved :43.8k

5

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?

Resolved :3.38k

2

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?

3

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?

2

Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round

What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?

Resolved :43.8k

6

Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round

AI Safety ∩ AI/DL Research

10

AI Progress Essay Contest