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Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?
99%
27
26 comments
26
AI Demonstrations
Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?
99%
42
69 comments
69
AI Demonstrations
Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
37%
38
40 comments
40
Ragnarรถk Series
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?
80%
19
17 comments
17
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated?
Resolved :
No
5
4 comments
4
Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?
Resolved :
No
19
13 comments
13
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
5.73
20
4 comments
4
How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
Resolved :
64.1M
6
16 comments
16
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
20%
45
61 comments
61
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
3.43
14
25 comments
25
AGI Outcomes
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