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Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

21

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

274 forecasters

27

AI Demonstrations

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

403 forecasters

42

AI Demonstrations

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

371 forecasters

38

Ragnarök Series

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

145 forecasters

19

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated?

5

Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?

129 forecasters

19

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

20

How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?

Resolved :64.1M

6