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In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?
3.39M
93 forecasters
28
38 comments
38
Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?
3%
71 forecasters
16
22 comments
22
AGI Outcomes
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
2%
429 forecasters
49
16 comments
16
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
19.7
231 forecasters
44
36 comments
36
AGI Outcomes
Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?
1%
358 forecasters
52
78 comments
78
Business of AI
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
42.2
283 forecasters
35
47 comments
47
AGI Outcomes
If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?
170k
52 forecasters
9
11 comments
11
If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?
60%
167 forecasters
26
38 comments
38
AGI Outcomes
How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?
Resolved :
189k
84 forecasters
5
25 comments
25
Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?
13%
35 forecasters
18
13 comments
13
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