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What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

End of 2024:3.5k

6

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

6

Chinese AI Chips

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

10

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

403 forecasters

42

AI Demonstrations

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

31

160 comments160

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

9

When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?

2

Will molecular nanotechnology have been proven feasible by the following years?

6

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

16

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

371 forecasters

38

Ragnarök Series