Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?
2512-02-16
116 forecasters
18
23 comments
23
Verity
Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?
3%
447 forecasters
53
69 comments
69
Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?
0.3%
188 forecasters
14
22 comments
22
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?
5%
42 forecasters
5
no comments
0
When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?
2040-08-27
61 forecasters
17
8 comments
8
Verity
Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?
SpaceX
63%
NASA
23%
CNSA
20%
2 others
22
1 comment
1
When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?
KARI
Jan 19, 2034
JAXA
Aug 17, 2032
ESA
Mar 23, 2032
1 other
7
17 comments
17
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?
2025:
2.09
40 forecasters
6
8 comments
8
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
What will be the maximum number of people simultaneously on the moon in 2030?
2.55
85 forecasters
8
5 comments
5
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
What will be the total number of nationalities to have visited the moon by 2030?
2.24
103 forecasters
10
13 comments
13
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Load More