MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

17

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?

128 forecasters

5

Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?

8

Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?

4

Regulation of AI

Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?

5

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

3

The Westinghouse Contingency

3

AI Progress Essay Contest

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

7

AI Technical Benchmarks

When will OpenAI next update its approach to alignment research?

Resolved :Feb 24, 2023

9

What will Sam Altman's net worth be in January 2030?

1