Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
69%
Afghanistan
60%
70 others
20
62 comments
62
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
68%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
210 comments
210
The Israel-Hamas War: Forecasting in Unprecedented Times
13
4 comments
4
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Germany
1%
Taiwan
1%
6 others
12
22 comments
22
Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?
55%
46 forecasters
7
6 comments
6
Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?
1%
209 forecasters
19
38 comments
38
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel by 2031 if Iran gets a nuclear bomb by then?
62%
55 forecasters
6
21 comments
21
Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
20%
16 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?
Resolved :
Yes
74 forecasters
4
6 comments
6
What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?
Resolved :
42.5
59 forecasters
8
31 comments
31
Load More