Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
How many spacecraft will land on the moon in each of the following years?
2025:
2.72
13
13 comments
13
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
AI-Fizzle
31.28%
Futurama
28.15%
AI-Dystopia
15.61%
2 others
31
160 comments
160
AGI Outcomes
Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?
2%
54
69 comments
69
An attempt to prove reaction-less EM drive technology in space?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
17
28 comments
28
Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?
5%
21
8 comments
8
Will either a space elevator or a skyhook transport at least 10 metric tons (cumulative payloads) before 2046?
4%
12
17 comments
17
When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?
2.31k
15
16 comments
16
When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?
2512-02-16
17
23 comments
23
Verity
Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?
4%
15
30 comments
30
In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?
3.39M
27
38 comments
38
Load more