MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

AI Benchmarking

2024 US Election Hub

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

58

What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?

6

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

9

When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?

4

When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?

15

Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?

9

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled

1

Nuclear Risk Tournament

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

5

What percent of China-based threat actors' reported targets will be critical infrastructure entities in 2022?

Resolved :Ambiguous

3

White Hat Cyber