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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-05-14
176
482 comments
482
AGI Outcomes
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
2028-08-28
94
72 comments
72
AGI Outcomes
What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025?
40.1
9
7 comments
7
AI Benchmarks
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
2027-04-13
29
18 comments
18
AI Demonstrations
When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?
L5
Apr 4, 2030
L4
Oct 20, 2020
L3
Apr 15, 2021
9
121 comments
121
When will programs write programs for us?
Resolved :
Jul 7, 2021
58
68 comments
68
AI Demonstrations
When will PHP die?
2040-03-23
10
13 comments
13
What distributions would you like?
8
28 comments
28
Metaculus Meta
What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?
Resolved :
38
4
2 comments
2
Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?
47%
5
no comments
0
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