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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2032-07-31
1432 forecasters
176
488 comments
488
AGI Outcomes
What will be the best score on the SWE-Bench (unassisted) benchmark before 2025?
32.6
23 forecasters
9
15 comments
15
AI Benchmarks
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?
OVH
15%
Amazon Web Services
5%
Microsoft Azure
3%
1 other
6
no comments
0
Chinese AI Chips
When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?
2028-07-31
594 forecasters
94
72 comments
72
AGI Outcomes
condition
3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?
12 forecasters
if yes
if no
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030-03-07
Date of Artificial General Intelligence
2030-03-11
7
no comments
0
Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?
13%
58 forecasters
6
30 comments
30
Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?
85%
61 forecasters
14
7 comments
7
AI Technical Benchmarks
Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?
45%
85 forecasters
23
14 comments
14
When will an AI be able to solve over 80% of competition-level coding problems on its first try?
2027-02-22
138 forecasters
29
18 comments
18
AI Demonstrations
When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?
L5:
2030-06-07
243 forecasters
9
121 comments
121
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