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Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?

8

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

3

AI Technical Benchmarks

Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?

13

Space Technology & Climate

Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?

14

Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?

11

A medical pathway to complete painlessness?

260 forecasters

32

A triumph over the mite-y?

5

Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies?

6

Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?

4

Will Metaculus's predictions significantly improve in the next 6 months?

8