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If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?
61%
248 forecasters
20
24 comments
24
The Taiwan Tinderbox
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
61%
10
31%
11
10%
4 others
4
12 comments
12
Will Taiwan/Republic of China declare independence by 2035?
20%
119 forecasters
17
9 comments
9
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
35%
951 forecasters
104
200 comments
200
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
48 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
50%
50%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
21%
21%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?
4%
257 forecasters
34
40 comments
40
The Taiwan Tinderbox
If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?
74%
141 forecasters
21
23 comments
23
The Taiwan Tinderbox
If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years?
67%
223 forecasters
24
104 comments
104
The Taiwan Tinderbox
If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?
43.7%
38 forecasters
2
9 comments
9
When will Taiwan reduce COVID restrictions from Level 3?
Resolved :
Jul 27, 2021
25 forecasters
5
17 comments
17
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