Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
80%
136 forecasters
25
22 comments
22
Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025?
60%
245 forecasters
23
38 comments
38
Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?
20%
287 forecasters
27
72 comments
72
Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before 2035?
7%
474 forecasters
47
51 comments
51
Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?
7%
131 forecasters
12
22 comments
22
Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?
55%
46 forecasters
7
6 comments
6
When will Elon Musk cease to be sole CEO of Tesla?
2029-05-31
11 forecasters
9
9 comments
9
What will Tesla's market capitalization be on January 1, 2030?
1.39k
99 forecasters
20
35 comments
35
How many vehicles will Tesla report producing in 2025?
2.89M
74 forecasters
15
44 comments
44
When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?
2029-05-08
157 forecasters
33
44 comments
44
Business of AI
Load More