Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
🇺🇸
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?
≤5 nm
98.5%
≤3 nm
86%
≤2 nm
28.3%
10
5 comments
5
Chinese AI Chips
How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?
Resolved :
29.3M
5 comments
5
AI in China
Before mid-2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?
10k / month
27.8%
30k / month
16%
300k / year
14%
2 others
10
12 comments
12
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?
2032
60%
2026
40%
2024
5%
5
6 comments
6
Regulation of AI
Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?
58%
7
6 comments
6
Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?
3%
2
1 comment
1
AI in China
Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?
32%
9
2 comments
2
Chinese AI Chips
Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?
OVH
13%
Amazon Web Services
10%
Microsoft Azure
8%
1 other
6
no comments
0
Chinese AI Chips
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD
2%
Google
2%
Nvidia
2%
7
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024?
Q3 (ends Sep 2024):
1.9M
6
5 comments
5
Chinese AI Chips
Load more