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Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?
10k / month
27.8%
30k / month
16%
300k / year
14%
2 others
10
14 comments
14
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?
1%
33 forecasters
2
1 comment
1
AI in China
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?
≤5 nm
98.5%
≤3 nm
84%
≤2 nm
28.3%
10
5 comments
5
Chinese AI Chips
Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?
AMD
4%
Google
3%
Nvidia
2%
7
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?
31.8%
37 forecasters
9
2 comments
2
Chinese AI Chips
How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024?
Q3 (ends Sep 2024):
1.9M
7 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
Chinese AI Chips
How much quarterly revenue will SMIC earn from 12" wafers in 2024?
Q1 (ends Mar 2024):
1.15B
7 forecasters
6
1 comment
1
Chinese AI Chips
How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?
Resolved :
29.3M
27 forecasters
5 comments
5
AI in China
Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?
2032
60%
2026
40%
2024
5%
5
6 comments
6
Regulation of AI
Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?
58%
44 forecasters
7
6 comments
6
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