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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1569 forecasters

206

504 comments504

AI Progress Essay Contest

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1482 forecasters

181

508 comments508

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

514 forecasters

68

109 comments109

Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?

792 forecasters

193

Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?

Resolved :No35%

177 forecasters

48

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

125 forecasters

41

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

6

As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?

Resolved :Jun 2, 20302035-05-31

13

Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?

Resolved :Annulled55%

162 forecasters

18

Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1

When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?

Resolved :Ambiguous2031-07-26

2