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Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
1%
Japan
1%
Ukraine
1%
6 others
12
17 comments
17
Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?
United States
35%
Estonia
28%
Poland
28%
9 others
9
7 comments
7
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
70%
Saudi Arabia
23%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will Ukraine join the EU before 2030?
15%
43
74 comments
74
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
30%
Israel
25%
Pakistan
16%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
2026-01-12
31
45 comments
45
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
1%
20
123 comments
123
Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?
1%
24
80 comments
80
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
1%
5
5 comments
5
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?
32
9
20 comments
20
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