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How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?
21 to 100
93.42%
More than 100
6.28%
0
0.1%
2 others
7
90 comments
90
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
8%
13
62 comments
62
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?
Orthomyxoviridae
60%
Other 24 known HIVF
25%
Coronaviridae
15%
1 other
17
7 comments
7
Biosecurity Tournament
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
8%
15
17 comments
17
AI Safety
Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States?
Milk recall due to H5N1
1%
US officials warn against drinking milk
0.7%
Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk
0.2%
4
13 comments
13
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
How many measles cases will be reported in the United States in 2024?
334
6
44 comments
44
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?
2024:
20.1k
11
42 comments
42
Mpox (Monkeypox)
What will be the average annual number of measles cases in the US from 2025 through 2030?
278
9 comments
9
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
condition
Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?
if yes
if no
500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?
4%
4%
500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?
0%
0%
1
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?
3%
58
109 comments
109
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