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Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
32%
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45 comments
45
๐ Quarterly Cup ๐
When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezumaโs Revenge?
Closed
23
42 comments
42
When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?
Closed
22
16 comments
16
When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?
Closed
15
16 comments
16
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?
Closed
10
11 comments
11
AI Safety
Can AI outperform superforecasters by 2030?
no comments
0
Threshold 2030 (Day One)
How many named machine learning advancements will have been autonomously discovered by AI systems without human intervention by 2030?
no comments
0
Threshold 2030 (Day One)
When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?
2024-11-28
11
8 comments
8
Will George Hotz's proposed AI chip company release a consumer product by 2030?
Closed
6
6 comments
6
When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
2025-02-19
58
100 comments
100
Effective Institutions Project
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