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Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1%
72
329 comments
329
On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?
5.2e-1
1
4 comments
4
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
1%
19
26 comments
26
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?
42%
6
1 comment
1
Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
83
102 comments
102
Verity
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
55%
63
153 comments
153
Verity
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
60%
10
36%
11
10%
4 others
4
12 comments
12
condition
2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump)
if yes
if no
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?
50%
50%
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030?
50%
50%
7
2 comments
2
2024 Electoral Consequences
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
2%
4
no comments
0
Will there be a US-China war before 2035?
9%
40
33 comments
33
The Taiwan Tinderbox
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