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Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.8M for November 2024?
Closed
32 forecasters
no comments
0
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 3.0M for November 2024?
Closed
32 forecasters
no comments
0
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for November 2024?
Closed
32 forecasters
no comments
0
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for November 2024?
Closed
31 forecasters
no comments
0
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures
4
no comments
0
Forecast With GiveWell Comment Deadline Extended to End of December ($2,250 in Prizes Available)!
13
5 comments
5
A Massive Rewrite, A Slate of Improvements, and Going Open Source
28
432 comments
432
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
24%
138 forecasters
14
55 comments
55
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the end of April 2025?
85.2
8 forecasters
1
6 comments
6
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
Will all frontier labs dedicate at least 10% of compute to alignment/safety in 2029?
Your forecast of Crowd Median
10%
Your forecast
9%
1 comment
1
The Curve
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