MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

5

Regulation of AI

How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?

Resolved :2.1×10²⁵

11

AI Technical Benchmarks

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2025:3×10¹⁸

7

Forecasting Our World in Data

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2023:2×10²⁵

18

Forecasting Our World in Data

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

9

AI Technical Benchmarks

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

7

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?