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Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2025?

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will a rogue Artificial Intelligence system, acting autonomously, cause at least the following numbers of deaths before 2050?

2

Predictions as Public Works Project — What Metaculus Is Building Next

12

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

7

Effective Institutions Project

Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?

161 forecasters

29

Fermi Paradox Series

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

28

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

20

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

356 forecasters

55

Ragnarök Series

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

31

160 comments160

Will molecular nanotechnology have been proven feasible by the following years?

6