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Will a rogue Artificial Intelligence system, acting autonomously, cause at least the following numbers of deaths before 2050?

1

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

1478 forecasters

221

147 comments147

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

136 forecasters

25

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

199 forecasters

13

Regulation of AI

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

21

Will molecular nanotechnology have been proven feasible by the following years?

6

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

4

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

20

When will the first major tech company offer a university course taught primarily by AI?

2