MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures

4

Will lithium carbonate (CNY/T) prices continuously remain above 70,000 before December 21, 2024?

The Community Prediction will be revealed on

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

What will be the close price of the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) on December 30, 2024?

6

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

End of 2024:3.5k

6

By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?

The Community Prediction will be revealed on

Brown University Forecasting Team

By how many billion USD will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?

Brown University Forecasting Team

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

6

Chinese AI Chips

Will the study of supplying eyeglasses to near-vision impaired adults in Kenya and India find a boost to household consumption of the following levels?

6

Forecast With GiveWell

Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

10

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Predictions as Public Works Project — What Metaculus Is Building Next

12