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Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures

4

A Massive Rewrite, A Slate of Improvements, and Going Open Source

28

424 comments424

Will there be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100?

495 forecasters

45

Forecast With GiveWell Prize Pool Increased to $2250!

13

Predictions as Public Works Project — What Metaculus Is Building Next

12

Will the following years be the warmest year on record?

11

Winners of the Global Pulse Tournament

4

Global Pulse Tournament

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10

Metaculus Journal Archives

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

152 forecasters

25

Forecasting Our World in Data

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

20