MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

Bridgewater 2025

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?

1907 forecasters

77

108 comments108

ACX 2025 Prediction Contest

Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on March 31, 2025?

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?

12 percentage points this week

6

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on February 28, 2025?

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will the United States and Denmark announce formal negotiations over the possible transfer of sovereignty of Greenland to the United States before 2026?

42 percentage points this week

4

Bright Line Watch

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

10

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

8

Will the Global Protest Tracker report a protest in any of these areas before May 1, 2025?

Flagler College Spring 2025

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

100 forecasters

9