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Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before January 1, 2025?
Closed
30 forecasters
no comments
0
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Will a bilateral ceasefire be announced in the Ukraine war, before January 1, 2025?
Closed
31 forecasters
no comments
0
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
208 comments
208
Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?
23%
51 forecasters
7
1 comment
1
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
2026-01-07
218 forecasters
34
61 comments
61
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
68%
Afghanistan
63%
70 others
20
59 comments
59
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
25%
Israel
20%
Pakistan
10%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025?
Contested
86%
Israel
13.1%
Hamas
0.6%
3 others
25
75 comments
75
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will Ukraine use ATACMS to strike deep within Russia before 1 January 2025?
1
no comments
0
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
0.7%
537 forecasters
10
16 comments
16
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
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