Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2025?
Closed
33 forecasters
no comments
0
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?
United States
50%
China
33%
United Arab Emirates
10%
6 others
16
42 comments
42
If life is discovered in the solar system before 2050, where will it be first discovered?
Mars
38%
Europa
32.7%
Enceladus
10%
7 others
15
16 comments
16
Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?
3%
31 forecasters
7
2 comments
2
Will the Universe end?
75%
510 forecasters
31
48 comments
48
Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?
24%
370 forecasters
42
63 comments
63
Verity
Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?
29.2k
161 forecasters
29
23 comments
23
Fermi Paradox Series
When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?
2512-02-16
116 forecasters
18
23 comments
23
Verity
In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?
3.39M
93 forecasters
28
38 comments
38
Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?
193
4 forecasters
9
17 comments
17
Load More