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Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified
6
10 comments
10
On March 1, 2025, what will be the highest average win rate shown at the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Closed
0.618
23 forecasters
no comments
0
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
On February 1, 2025, what will be the highest average win rate shown at the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Closed
0.602
22 forecasters
no comments
0
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
On March 31, 2025, what will be the highest average win rate shown at the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Closed
0.629
17 forecasters
no comments
0
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
Suggest Questions for the Quarterly Cup!
13
101 comments
101
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?
27%
1268 forecasters
52
200 comments
200
What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025?
27 forecasters
Revealed
in 4 days
3 comments
3
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Platform feature suggestions
111
2.7k comments
2.7k
Metaculus Meta
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
80%
21 percentage points this week
20 forecasters
1
7 comments
7
AGI Readiness Index
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
40%
Microsoft
27%
Meta
20%
13 others
5
9 comments
9
Future of AI
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