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Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before January 1, 2025?
Closed
30 forecasters
no comments
0
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
25%
Israel
20%
Pakistan
10%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
0.2%
959 forecasters
19
28 comments
28
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
1%
517 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?
Level 3
25%
Level 2
3%
Level 1
1%
10
9 comments
9
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
61.9%
10
35%
11
10%
4 others
4
12 comments
12
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
36%
356 forecasters
55
18 comments
18
Ragnarök Series
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?
0.1%
110 forecasters
6
6 comments
6
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?
27%
247 forecasters
28
15 comments
15
Ragnarök Series
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