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How many Metaculus users that ranked in the top 16 in the Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup will remain in the top 16 at the end of Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup?
6.28
33 forecasters
6
40 comments
40
🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
2027-10-14
1524 forecasters
202
482 comments
482
AI Progress Essay Contest
Which team will win the 2024/2025 UEFA Champions League?
Real Madrid
30%
Manchester City
22%
Liverpool
12.5%
33 others
4
8 comments
8
Quarterly Cup Tournament: Q4 2024
27
35 comments
35
🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Winners of the Global Pulse Tournament
4
7 comments
7
Global Pulse Tournament
On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
OpenAI
46.28%
Anthropic
29.45%
Google DeepMind
19.56%
3 others
9
12 comments
12
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?
2025-07-10
86 forecasters
30
27 comments
27
AI Demonstrations
What will be the best score in the 2019/2020 Winograd Schema AI challenge
Resolved :
Ambiguous
77 forecasters
17
7 comments
7
Announcing the Bentham Prize
9
8 comments
8
Animal Welfare Series
Li Wenliang prize series
34
66 comments
66
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