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If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
25%
Israel
20%
Pakistan
12%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
57%
421 forecasters
63
154 comments
154
Verity
Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?
11%
223 forecasters
37
35 comments
35
Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
1%
48 forecasters
7
no comments
0
Ragnarรถk Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
5%
191 forecasters
18
17 comments
17
Ragnarรถk Series
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
20%
446 forecasters
58
67 comments
67
What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?
0.169
28 forecasters
3
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
1.02
139 forecasters
26
45 comments
45
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.171
19 forecasters
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
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