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On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

23 percentage points this week

6

Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee

On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?

Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

245 forecasters

9

122 comments122

Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?

4

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

10

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

132 forecasters

12

What will be the US MSRP of lowest priced Tesla in 2030?

5

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

157 forecasters

33

When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?

13

AI Demonstrations

Long Bets series: Will Tesla have been the first company with 1 million SAE Level 4 autonomy on over 90% of public roads in the contiguous United States by January 1st 2037?

8