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Will AI be given legal rights or be protected from abuse anywhere in the United States before 2035?

182 forecasters

13

Regulation of AI

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10

Metaculus Journal Archives

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

17

Situational Awareness

Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?

14

Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025?

Google DeepMind

5

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

429 forecasters

49

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

371 forecasters

38

Ragnarök Series

By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?

112 forecasters

31

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

396 forecasters

34

Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?

17