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Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

306 forecasters

33

AI Demonstrations

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1432 forecasters

176

488 comments488

When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?

27

Situational Awareness

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus

20

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

20

Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?

6

Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

225 forecasters

27

AI Demonstrations

Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025?

Google DeepMind

4

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

169 forecasters

32

AI Demonstrations

3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

7