MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?

182 forecasters

16

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

3

What will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House for the calendar year 2028?

111 forecasters

23

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

145 forecasters

19

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

124 forecasters

21

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

4

Regulation of AI

Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?

125 forecasters

15

Will over 70% of internet traffic be encrypted by 2017?

11

Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?

119 forecasters

15

Will security patches against "Specter-NG" vulnerabilities be available for end-users by September 2018?

Resolved :Ambiguous

3