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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

1478 forecasters

221

147 comments147

When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?

104 forecasters

19

AI Demonstrations

By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?

271 forecasters

37

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

267 forecasters

40

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

11

Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?

110 forecasters

24

Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?

163 forecasters

25

What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?

17

Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?

239 forecasters

52

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

9