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If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

7

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

11

Mpox (Monkeypox)

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

5

What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?

Orthomyxoviridae

Other 24 known HIVF

19

Biosecurity Tournament

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

581 forecasters

58

109 comments109

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

350 forecasters

39

108 comments108

How many total SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses will the US FDA and CDC recommend for at least 15% of the US on December 31, 2024?

127 forecasters

7

Biosecurity Tournament

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

9

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

3

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

296 forecasters

40

Biosecurity Tournament