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Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
208 comments
208
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
68%
Afghanistan
63%
70 others
20
59 comments
59
Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
2%
411 forecasters
9
13 comments
13
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?
19%
28 forecasters
6
4 comments
4
Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?
5%
27 forecasters
5
19 comments
19
Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?
8%
67 forecasters
9
25 comments
25
Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?
Resolved :
No
125 forecasters
6
7 comments
7
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?
Resolved :
2.42k
57 forecasters
11
20 comments
20
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?
Resolved :
No
45 forecasters
12
25 comments
25
Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?
Resolved :
No
65 forecasters
15
13 comments
13
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