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How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
61.9%
10
35%
11
10%
4 others
4
12 comments
12
How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?
3.3k
19 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?
Resolved :
12.5k
119 forecasters
15
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Tournament
How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?
Resolved :
3.8k
71 forecasters
4
5 comments
5
Nuclear Risk Tournament
How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?
Resolved :
2
107 forecasters
15
27 comments
27
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Red Line Podcast tackles Metaculus Questions
9
2 comments
2
Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?
Resolved :
Annulled
118 forecasters
9
19 comments
19
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?
Resolved :
No
88 forecasters
2
9 comments
9
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?
Resolved :
No
131 forecasters
8
20 comments
20
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?
Resolved :
No
81 forecasters
4
12 comments
12
Nuclear Risk Tournament
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